Private employers added 195,000 jobs in August, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report, surging past analyst expectations of 149,000 even as recession fears continue to mount. Most hiring took place in the service-providing sector, with 184,000 new jobs created. Manufacturing hiring remained fairly steady, with 8,000 jobs added.
It’s often said that the stock market is not the real economy, meaning: Wall Street traders make educated guesses about the future, so don’t read too much into this or that moment’s results. Stocks bounce around. GDP numbers, hiring and other data better reflect the nation’s health.
But if the stock market isn’t the real economy, it’s real life for tens of millions of Americans who have 401(k), IRA or other retirement savings. If you’re one of those people, check your mailbox or online account for second-quarter results to get a satisfying jolt: Your balance is rising. Because the economy continues to grow, and add jobs at a fast clip, 10 years into a record expansion. At this juncture, the stock market reflects the real economy.
What to expect this summer and fall.
The first half of 2019 was a wild one for investors, with the S&P 500 gaining an impressive 17%. The ride wasn’t always a smooth one, with concerns over slowing economic growth and an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China creating volatility in the market. So far, fears over a U.S. recession in 2019 have proven unwarranted, but investors are understandably concerned about what’s coming in the second half of the year. Here are seven predictions about what investors can expect from the LPL Research team.